A quantitative uncertainty assessment of eruptive parameters derived from tephra deposits: the example of two large eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador

Physical parameters of explosive eruptions are typically derived from tephra deposits. However, the characterization of a given eruption relies strongly on the quality of the dataset used, the strategy chosen to obtain and process field data and the particular model considered to derive eruptive parameters. As a result, eruptive parameters are typically affected by a certain level of uncertainty and should not be considered as absolute values. Unfortunately, such uncertainty is difficult to assess because it depends on several factors and propagates from field sampling to the application and interpretation of dispersal models. Characterization of explosive eruptions is made even more difficult when tephra deposits are poorly exposed and only medial data are available. In this paper, we present a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with the characterization of tephra deposits generated by the two largest eruptions of the last 2,000years of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador. In particular, we have investigated the effects of the determination of the maximum clast on the compilation of isopleth maps, and, therefore, on the characterization of plume height. We have also compared the results obtained from the application of different models for the determination of both plume height and erupted volume and for the eruption classification. Finally, we have investigated the uncertainty propagation into the calculation of mass eruption rate and eruption duration. We have found that for our case study, the determination of plume height from isopleth maps is more sensitive to the averaging techniques used to define the maximum clast than to the choice of dispersal models used (i.e. models of Carey and Sparks 1986; Pyle 1989) and that even the application of the same dispersal model can result in plume height discrepancies if different isopleth lines are used (i.e. model of Carey and Sparks 1986). However, the uncertainties associated with the determination of erupted mass, and, as a result, of the eruption duration, are larger than the uncertainties associated with the determination of plume height. Mass eruption rate is also associated with larger uncertainties than the determination of plume height because it is related to the fourth power of plume height. Eruption classification is also affected by data processing. In particular, uncertainties associated with the compilation of isopleth maps affect the eruption classification proposed by Pyle (1989), whereas the VEI classification is affected by the uncertainties resulting from the determination of erupted mass. Finally, we have found that analytical and empirical models should be used together for a more reliable characterization of explosive eruptions. In fact, explosive eruptions would be characterized better by a range of parameters instead of absolute values for erupted mass, plume height, mass eruption rate and eruption duration. A standardization of field sampling would also reduce the uncertainties associated with eruption characterizatio

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Part I: probabilistic hazard assessment

We present a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador), a quiescent but active stratovolcano known for its highly explosive behaviour. First, we developed a set of possible eruptive scenarios based on thorough field investigations, literature studies and using the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database. Five eruption scenarios were identified, including two based on large pre-historical sub-Plinian/Plinian eruptions with eruptive parameters constrained from field investigations (One Eruption Scenario; OES) and three Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS) based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) classification, for which eruptive parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height and median grainsize) were stochastically sampled within boundaries defined by VEI 3, 4 and 5. Second, the modelling was performed using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2 in combination with wind profiles from the NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 database. We performed 1,000 runs for each eruption scenario, stochastically sampling a wind profile (OES and ERS) and a set of eruptive parameters (ERS only) at each run. Using the conditional probabilities of occurrence of eruption of VEI 3, 4 and 5 calculated from the GVP catalogue, we assessed the probability of tephra accumulation in a given time window. Based on the GVP database, a simple Poisson model shows that an eruption of VEI≥3 has a 36% probability of occurrence in the next 10years. Finally, the hazard assessment was compiled based on three different outputs, including (i) probability maps for a given tephra accumulation, (ii) isomass maps for a given probability value and (iii) hazard curves for a given location. We conclude that the area west of Cotopaxi is exposed to light to severe tephra fallout for the smallest eruption magnitude considered (i.e. VEI 3). This area comprises a main communication axis (Panamerican Highway) topographically constrained at the bottom of the Interandean Valley, as well as the capital Quito and the town of Latacunga. In a companion paper, Biass etal. (this volume) propose a method for a rapid risk assessment for tephra fallout using global and easily accessible data and the hazard assessment described her

Hermite regularization of the Lattice Boltzmann Method for open source computational aeroacoustics

The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is emerging as a powerful engineering tool for aeroacoustic computations. However, the LBM has been shown to present accuracy and stability issues in the medium-low Mach number range, that is of interest for aeroacoustic applications. Several solutions have been proposed but often are too computationally expensive, do not retain the simplicity and the advantages typical of the LBM, or are not described well enough to be usable by the community due to proprietary software policies. We propose to use an original regularized collision operator, based on the expansion in Hermite polynomials, that greatly improves the accuracy and stability of the LBM without altering significantly its algorithm. The regularized LBM can be easily coupled with both non-reflective boundary conditions and a multi-level grid strategy, essential ingredients for aeroacoustic simulations. Excellent agreement was found between our approach and both experimental and numerical data on two different benchmarks: the laminar, unsteady flow past a 2D cylinder and the 3D turbulent jet. Finally, most of the aeroacoustic computations with LBM have been done with commercial softwares, while here the entire theoretical framework is implemented on top of an open source library (Palabos).Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America (in press

Insights into eruption dynamics from textural analysis: the case of the May, 2008, Chaitén eruption

The May, 2008, Chaitén (southern Chile) eruption was characterized by several explosive events, each associated with plumes which reached up to about 19km above sea level on May 6. A study of the textural and physical features of the juvenile clasts erupted during the climactic phase of the 2008 eruption of Chaitén is presented. Pumice clasts show unimodal density distribution (main mode at 600kg/m3), average vesicularity of about 69%, a glassy groundmass with no microcrystals, and vesicles with dimension between ∼1μm and ∼2mm. They also show a unimodal vesicle size distribution with most frequent vesicle size in the range 0.05-0.08mm and an estimated vesicle number density of 1.3 ± 0.5 × 105 mm−3 related to a rapid nucleation event produced during the late phases of magma rise. This is confirmed by the absence of microcrystals that could otherwise have delayed vesicle formation and allowed the magma to maintain a low viscosity and a supersaturation in volatiles. Vesiculation and fragmentation were triggered by a sudden decompression of the melt associated with the opening of the volcanic conduit (∼10MPa s−1

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ∼9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoe

Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation

As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategie

Plume height, volume, and classification of explosive volcanic eruptions based on the Weibull function

The Weibull distribution between volume and square root of isopach area has been recently introduced for determining volume of tephra deposits, which is crucial to the assessment of the magnitude and hazards of explosive volcanoes. We show how the decay of the size of the largest lithics with the square root of isopleth area can also be well described using a Weibull function and how plume height correlates strongly with corresponding Weibull parameters. Variations of median grain size (Mdϕ) values with square root of area of the associated contours can be, similarly, well fitted with a Weibull function. Weibull parameters, derived for both the thinning of tephra deposits and the decrease of grain size (both maximum lithic diameter and Mdϕ), with a proxy for the distance from vent (e.g., square root of isoline areas) can be combined to classify the style of explosive volcanic eruptions. Accounting for the uncertainty in the derivation of eruptive parameters (e.g., plume height and volume of tephra deposits) is crucial to any classification of eruptive style and hazard assessment. Considering a typical uncertainty of 20% for the determination of plume height, a new eruption classification scheme based on selected Weibull parameters is proposed. Ultraplinian, Plinian, Subplinian, and small-moderate explosive eruptions are defined on the ground of plume height and mass eruption rate. Overall, the Weibull fitting represents a versatile and reliable strategy for the estimation of both the volume of tephra deposits and the height of volcanic plumes and for the classification of eruptive style. Nonetheless, due to the typically large uncertainties (mainly due to availability of data, compilation of isopach and isopleth maps, and discrepancies from empirical best fits), plume height, volume, and magnitude of explosive eruptions cannot be considered as absolute values, regardless of the technique used. It is important that various empirical and analytical methods are applied in order to assess such an uncertaint

Comparison of Two Advection-Diffusion Methods for Tephra Transport in Volcanic Eruptions

In order to model the dispersal of volcanic particles in the atmosphere and their deposition on the ground, one has to simulate an advection-diffusion-sedimentation process on a large spatial area. Here we compare a Lattice Boltzmann and a Cellular Automata approach. Our results show that for high Peclet regimes, the cellular automata model produce results that are as accurate as the lattice Boltzmann model and is computationally more effectiv

Fragmentation mechanisms revealed trough the ash morphology and texture at Sakurajima volcano (Japan)

Volcanic ash represents a fundamental source of information on eruptive processes occurring both prior and after explosive eruptions. In particular, many studies evidenced how volcanic ash can be used to extract unique information about the style of volcanic activity and the relative fragmentation processes. We present a detailed study of ash collected during classical vulcanian activity at Sakurajima volcano (Japan), aimed at investigating the relationships between eruption dynamics and the key features of the resulting volcanic ash (e.g. shape and texture). Information about fragmentation mechanism is revealed by a comprehensive investigation over a complete sequence of activity observed in summer 2013 and October 2014. Based on SEM imaging of the ash samples, 4 main categories (Blocky Irregular, Blocky Regular, Rough-Vesicular, and Rough) have been defined. These characterize all the different phases observed in the eruptive activity, without showing important changes in concentration or morphology. The ash morphology has been then quantitatively defined trough a set of shape parameters, and compared with textural features (ground mass crystallinity, vesicularity) in order to outline the relations with different styles of activity observed during the whole sequence. An exhaustive quantitative dataset on the shape and textural variability of Sakurajima ash provide important insights into magma fragmentation mechanisms and their relations with the evolution of eruptive dynamics. S01.2

A new strategy for the estimation of plume height from clast dispersal in various atmospheric and eruptive conditions

Plume height is an important parameter routinely used to characterize and classify explosive eruptions. Though the strategies to estimate key eruption source parameters such as erupted volume and mass flow rate have evolved over the past few decades, the determination of plume height of past eruptions is still mostly based on empirical approaches that do not account for the new developments in plume modelling based on the interaction of plume and wind. Here we present a revised strategy for the retrieval of plume height from field data that accounts for key aspects of plume dynamics and particle sedimentation, which include: i) the effect of wind advection on the buoyant plume, ii) a new parameterization of the gravitational spreading of the umbrella cloud for distances smaller than the radius of the plume, iii) the effect of particle shape on particle sedimentation, iv) the effect of different atmospheric profiles in different climate zones, v) three-dimensional wind, temperature and pressure data, and vi) topography. In particular, as wind can affect the dynamics and height of the plume, new computed sedimentation patterns are more complex and result in non-linear relationships between downwind and crosswind deposition. Our method is tested against observations of the 2011 eruption of Shinmoedake (Japan), the 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens (USA), and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Philippines). These are well-constrained examples of small, intermediate, and high intensity eruptions, respectively. Intensity scenarios are introduced to account for the non-unique relation between plume height and particle sedimentation resulting from wind advection of volcanic plumes. We further demonstrate that needle-like and disk-like particle shapes can have downwind distances 36 to 70% larger than the equivalent spheres. In addition, we find that the effect of latitude on the determination of plume height is more significant for low and intermediate intensity scenarios with a discrepancy between 7 and 20%